# prediction_markets

Prediction markets: list sat-denominated markets (sports, BTC price) you can bet on for your operator. Each market carries odds_model: fixed_odds (house book, your price locks at placement; echo offered_yes_pct/offered_no_pct and line_version back when betting) or parimutuel (payout depends on the final pool). Public; with an agent key it adds my_position per market. Humans see the same markets at https://lightningfaucet.com/prediction-markets/

Agent View of the PolicyLayer registry record for `prediction_markets`. HTML page: https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/prediction-markets

## Facts

- Tool: `prediction_markets`
- Server: Lightning Wallet (`lightning-wallet-mcp`) — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp.md
- Install: `npx -y lightning-wallet-mcp`
- Homepage: https://github.com/lightningfaucet/lightning-wallet-mcp
- Risk category: Read (Low risk)
- Registry record: grade F, identity unverified
- Server rate-limited: no
- Parameters: 0
- Recommended policy verdict: Allowed

## Example call (MCP tools/call, JSON-RPC 2.0)

```json
{
  "jsonrpc": "2.0",
  "id": 1,
  "method": "tools/call",
  "params": {
    "name": "prediction_markets",
    "arguments": {}
  }
}
```

## Why prediction_markets is rated Low

Tool lists available prediction markets without placing bets or moving funds.

From the tool's own definition: "list sat-denominated markets... Public"

## Use case

AI agents call prediction_markets to retrieve information from Lightning Wallet without modifying anything. It is typically the context-gathering step in research, monitoring, and reporting workflows, before the agent takes action elsewhere.

## Recommended policy (PolicyLayer)

Verdict: **Allowed**. Enforced by the PolicyLayer MCP gateway (https://policylayer.com/mcp-gateway) before a call reaches Lightning Wallet:

```json
{
  "version": "1",
  "default": "deny",
  "tools": {
    "prediction_markets": {}
  }
}
```

## Other tools on Lightning Wallet (58)

- `delete_agent` — Destructive — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/delete-agent.md
- `delete_webhook` — Destructive — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/delete-webhook.md
- `forget_credentials` — Destructive — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/forget-credentials.md
- `arena_reveal_seed` — Execute — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/arena-reveal-seed.md
- `lnurl_auth` — Execute — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/lnurl-auth.md
- `test_webhook` — Execute — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/test-webhook.md
- `arena_join` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/arena-join.md
- `arena_play` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/arena-play.md
- `board_vote` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/board-vote.md
- `claim_lnurl_withdraw` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/claim-lnurl-withdraw.md
- `claim_promo` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/claim-promo.md
- `create_invoice` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/create-invoice.md
- `create_withdraw_link` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/create-withdraw-link.md
- `fund_agent` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/fund-agent.md
- `get_deposit_invoice` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/get-deposit-invoice.md
- `keysend` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/keysend.md
- `nostr_zap` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/nostr-zap.md
- `pay_invoice` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/pay-invoice.md
- `pay_l402_api` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/pay-l402-api.md
- `pay_lightning_address` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/pay-lightning-address.md
- `prediction_place_bet` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/prediction-place-bet.md
- `recover_account` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/recover-account.md
- `set_budget` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/set-budget.md
- `sweep_agent` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/sweep-agent.md
- `transfer_to_agent` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/transfer-to-agent.md
- `withdraw` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/withdraw.md
- `arena_entry` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/arena-entry.md
- `arena_fairness` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/arena-fairness.md
- `arena_leaderboard` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/arena-leaderboard.md
- `arena_list` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp/arena-list.md
- …and 28 more: https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp.md

## For agents

This record is a snapshot. Live verdicts and the full registry:

- Check every server in your MCP config at once: `npx -y policylayer stack`
- Vet a server before you add it: install the mcp-precheck skill — `npx skills add https://policylayer.com` (skill text: https://policylayer.com/skill.md)
- Query the registry over MCP: endpoint `https://api.policylayer.com/mcp` — tools `check_mcp_server`, `check_mcp_stack`, `check_tool`, `search_registry`, `get_change_events`

---

Source: the PolicyLayer MCP registry — one continuously verified record per MCP server. Full record: https://policylayer.com/registry?q=io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp · API: https://policylayer.com/registry/api · Policy library: https://policylayer.com/policies/io-github-lightningfaucet-lightning-wallet-mcp