# bet_research

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Agent View of the PolicyLayer registry record for `bet_research`. HTML page: https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/bet-research

## Facts

- Tool: `bet_research`
- Server: 19hz (`https://gateway.pipeworx.io/19hz/mcp`) — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz.md
- Homepage: https://github.com/pipeworx-io/mcp-19hz
- Risk category: Read (Low risk)
- Registry record: grade F, identity unverified
- Server auth posture: open
- Server CORS policy: *
- Server rate-limited: yes
- Parameters: 3 (1 required)
- Recommended policy verdict: Allowed

## Parameters

| Parameter | Type | Required | Description |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| `depth` | string | no | quick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough. |
| `market` | string | yes | Polymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?" |
| `include_raw` | boolean | no | Default false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~2 |

Parameters from the server's own tool schema.

## Example call (MCP tools/call, JSON-RPC 2.0)

```json
{
  "jsonrpc": "2.0",
  "id": 1,
  "method": "tools/call",
  "params": {
    "name": "bet_research",
    "arguments": {
      "market": "<market>"
    }
  }
}
```

## Why bet_research is rated Low

Despite being used in the context of betting (a financial domain), the tool performs only data retrieval and analysis—no financial transactions, execution of trades, money movement, or deletion occurs. The tool gathers market data and provides analysis to inform a user's decision, but does not execute financial obligations or irreversible actions.

From the tool's own definition: "Tool description states it 'Research[es] a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data' and 'returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison.' The verbs are 'pulling,' 'resolves,' 'classifies,' and 'returns'—all read-only operations."

## Use case

AI agents call bet_research to retrieve information from 19hz without modifying anything. It is typically the context-gathering step in research, monitoring, and reporting workflows, before the agent takes action elsewhere.

## Recommended policy (PolicyLayer)

Verdict: **Allowed**. Enforced by the PolicyLayer MCP gateway (https://policylayer.com/mcp-gateway) before a call reaches 19hz:

```json
{
  "version": "1",
  "default": "deny",
  "tools": {
    "bet_research": {}
  }
}
```

## Other tools on 19hz (31)

- `forget` — Destructive — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/forget.md
- `polymarket_arbitrage` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/polymarket-arbitrage.md
- `polymarket_edges` — Financial — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/polymarket-edges.md
- `ai_visibility_check` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/ai-visibility-check.md
- `ask_pipeworx` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/ask-pipeworx.md
- `ask_pipeworx_grounded` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/ask-pipeworx-grounded.md
- `compare_entities` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/compare-entities.md
- `deep_research` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/deep-research.md
- `discover_tools` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/discover-tools.md
- `entity_profile` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/entity-profile.md
- `events` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/events.md
- `list_subscriptions` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/list-subscriptions.md
- `pipeworx_trending` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/pipeworx-trending.md
- `polymarket_edge_tracker` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/polymarket-edge-tracker.md
- `polymarket_kalshi_spread` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/polymarket-kalshi-spread.md
- `recall` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/recall.md
- `recent_alerts` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/recent-alerts.md
- `recent_changes` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/recent-changes.md
- `regions` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/regions.md
- `resolve_entity` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/resolve-entity.md
- `scan_competitor_ai_presence` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/scan-competitor-ai-presence.md
- `scan_dependency` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/scan-dependency.md
- `search_within` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/search-within.md
- `suggest_questions` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/suggest-questions.md
- `validate_claim` — Read — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/validate-claim.md
- `generate_llms_txt` — Write — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/generate-llms-txt.md
- `pipeworx_feedback` — Write — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/pipeworx-feedback.md
- `polymarket_fill_risk` — Write — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/polymarket-fill-risk.md
- `remember` — Write — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/remember.md
- `subscribe` — Write — https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz/subscribe.md
- …and 1 more: https://policylayer.com/tools/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz.md

## For agents

This record is a snapshot. Live verdicts and the full registry:

- Check every server in your MCP config at once: `npx -y policylayer stack`
- Vet a server before you add it: install the mcp-precheck skill — `npx skills add https://policylayer.com` (skill text: https://policylayer.com/skill.md)
- Query the registry over MCP: endpoint `https://api.policylayer.com/mcp` — tools `check_mcp_server`, `check_mcp_stack`, `check_tool`, `search_registry`, `get_change_events`

---

Source: the PolicyLayer MCP registry — one continuously verified record per MCP server. Full record: https://policylayer.com/registry?q=io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz · API: https://policylayer.com/registry/api · Policy library: https://policylayer.com/policies/io-github-pipeworx-io-19hz